Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
852 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024 - 12Z Fri Apr 26 2024

...A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

A mid-level trough over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to
eject out across the central and southern High Plains by Friday
morning, spurring development of a surface cyclone across the High
Plains. Winds at 850 mb will be south to south-southwest across the
Great Plains but with increased magnitude -- up to 50-60 kt --
and moisture transport will allow precipitable water values to
exceed 1.5" across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A broad area
of instability east of a forming central High Plains surface low
and attendant cold front/dryline, with values of 1000 to 3000 J/kg
from northern TX/southern OK into KS and NE.

Initially, some convection may be ongoing at the start of the
period over OK/AR along a warm front lifting northward, but
additional storm development is anticipated to occur during
Thursday afternoon ahead of the cold front/dryline in KS/OK with
thunderstorm development expanding through the evening and early
overnight across TX and northern locations including NE and IA.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, ramping up the
precipitation potential, despite decently fast cell motions. Deep
layer south- southwest flow supports training of cells with rains
up to 2.5" in an hour and local amounts up to 6". Models continue
to show good agreement for the slight risk across portions of
KS/OK/AR/MO which portions of could overlap with some heavy
rainfall potential tonight into Thursday morning. The surrounding
marginal risk was extended slightly from the overnight issuance
southward along the cold front into central TX, eastward along the
warm front into the Tennessee Valley, and westward more into
Nebraska/South Dakota to the north and west of the surface low.

Santorelli/Roth