In so many ways, coronavirus will be about numbers -- from case counts to the stock market to how long it lasts. Some are solid, some are emerging and some are crucial but distressingly vague. Here are health-related numbers pertaining to Pennsylvania:
Q: How lethal is the coronavirus according to the numbers?
A: Early on, a mortality rate of 2-4% was widely reported. That means between two and four out of every hundred people diagnosed with the coronavirus would die. But experts predict the mortality rate in the U.S. will be lower. That’s because early estimates didn’t reflect the full number who were actually sick — the denominator in the equation. The U.S. death rate is also expected to be lower because we saw it coming, we’re taking major steps to stop the spread and, hopefully, people in the U.S. will get better hospital care.
Dr. Raghavendra Tirupathi, the medical director for Keystone Infectious Diseases and chair of infection prevention at WellSpan Chambersburg Hospital, this week estimated a mortality rate of 1 to 2%. But it’s too early to be certain, he said. Much depends on “how we well we respond to it in terms of flattening the curve.”
By comparison, the mortality rate for the flu is, on average, 0.1%.
Q: What’s the worst-case death toll scenario?
A: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in advising the Trump administration, cited a range of between 200,000 and 1.7 million deaths.
Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former head of the CDC, published his own model of various scenarios. In his worst-case scenario, 1,635,000 people would die in the United States. He based that on a mortality rate of 1% percent with half the population getting the coronavirus. A more optimistic model projected that with a mortality rate of 0.5 percent and 10 percent of the population getting sick, 163,500 people would die.
Q: How does that translate in Pennsylvania?
A: Pennsylvania has 12.8 million people. If half got sick, and the mortality rate was 1 percent, 64,000 people would die, based on Frieden’s worst-case scenario. If just 10% of state residents became sick and the mortality rate was 0.5%, 6,400 people would die.
Q: How contagious is the coronavirus?
A: For comparison sake, the basic rule with regular flu is that each sick person infects about one more. With measles, each sick person infects up to 18 people, according to Tirupathi. He estimates the ratio for coronavirus is one sick person infecting about three more.
Q: Is there any encouraging numbers regarding coronavirus?
A: About 80 percent of people who come down with it doesn’t seem to get very sick. Some might not even know they have it. The coronavirus seems to be inflicting little damage on children. And according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker, of the 204,251 confirmed cases around the world as of Tuesday morning, 82,091 had recovered.
Q: What are some other health-related numbers raising concern?
A: The numbers of hospital beds and ventilators. One CDC estimate said 21 million people might need hospitalization. The U.S. has 925,000 beds, with many already occupied by people sick with other things.
Pennsylvania has about 37,000 beds. Tirupathi estimates 10 percent of people who get coronavirus will need hospitalization, with many if not most needing not just a bed but intensive care and ventilators. If that held true, 10 percent of state residents getting coronavirus would result in 128,000 needing hospital care. If half of state residents came down with coronavirus, 640,000 would need hospital care. Those kinds of possibilities are a big reason Gov. Tom Wolf has shut down schools and non-essential businesses. The goal is not only to prevent cases, but to space them out so they don’t overwhelm the health care system — what they refer to as flattening the curve.
Q: What about the ventilator supply?
A: That’s a scary and vague subject. The Society of Critical Care Medicine published an assessment of resources this week. It estimates U.S. hospitals have about 62,000 full-featured mechanical ventilators and about 100,000 more older models which may or may not do the job. The federal government has a stockpile of about 9,000 for emergency use. Additional older ventilators are available from other sources, leading to a total count “possibly above 200,000 units.” But ventilators also require specially-trained operators, pointing to another possible shortage.
In Pennsylvania, Secretary of Health Dr. Rachel Levine was asked about the supply of ventilators on Wednesday. She gave no numbers, saying the state has some in reserve, and will turn to the federal government if it runs short.
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Q: Who is at highest sick of getting severely ill or dying of coronavirus?
A: Older people and anyone with conditions such as heart disease, high blood pressure, lung disease, asthma, cancer and diabetes. A study done by Chinese health officials involving about 45,000 people found that 14.8% of people over 80 who got coronavirus died, as did 8% of people aged 70-79. The World Health Organization has cited death rates of 3.6% for people in their 60s, 1.3% for people in their 50s and under 1% for anyone younger. The death rate was 10.5% for people with heart disease and 7.3% for people with diabetes.
Regarding children and teens, only a very small percentage even got sick, with a tiny portion of those becoming severely ill. But by scientific standards, there’s still not enough data for solid conclusions. Death rates have varied by country and region. Italy, for example, has seen an unusually high death rate, possibly because it has an unusually old population.
Q: Pennsylvania has an older population. How vulnerable are we?
A: We have more vulnerable people than many states. Pennsylvania has 3.3 million people older than 60, according to a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of people at high risk for severe coronavirus illness. Pennsylvania also has more than one million people under 60 at high risk because of medical conditions, according to the analysis.