Nearly 2 in 3 Portland voters view Mayor Ted Wheeler unfavorably, even more favor new police oversight system, poll shows

Portland George Floyd protests May 29

Police advance in a cloud of tear gas as Portlanders protest anti-Black racism and police brutality.

A new poll shows a majority of Portland voters support a November ballot measure to create a new community-driven police oversight system, believe there is a systemic problem in the city’s policing system and have an “unfavorable” impression of Mayor Ted Wheeler and the police union that represents the majority of city officers.

Two months ahead of the Nov. 3 election, Wheeler drew an unfavorable rating of 63%, with 26% rating him favorably.

The survey of 435 voters deemed by pollsters likely to vote this fall found that 59% of them feel Portland is heading in the wrong direction. Most of them also support the Black Lives Matter movement and more of them name homelessness as an “extremely important” problem facing the city than any other issue. Support for Black Lives Matter was particularly strong, with 76% of poll respondents saying they view it favorably and 22% saying the opposite.

The poll was commissioned and paid for by Yes for Real Community Oversight of Police, a political action committee set up to advocate for the ballot measure, and conducted by California-based FM3 Research.

Voters were surveyed online and by phone between Aug. 25 and Aug. 30 and results have margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. The results, provided to The Oregonian/OregonLive on Tuesday, provide the latest glimpses into public opinion on police accountability, nightly protests calling for criminal and social justice changes and some elected leaders and city agencies.

[Read the full poll results]

The Portland City Council in July voted unanimously to let voters decide Nov. 3 on whether to revamp the city’s police oversight system. Proponents have called the ballot measure a “framework” for the new system and said voter approval would lead to the City Council forming a commission that would be given 18 months to iron out all the details. Supporters have said they want the new system to be independent of the city, give more power to community board members to investigate police misconduct complaints and have the authority to compel officers to testify and impose discipline.

The city’s current panel charged with handling those complaints, the Independent Police Review, is overseen by the city’s auditor and investigates complaints made against police officers. The office has been criticized for its lack of disciplinary power, low funding, lack of subpoena power and lengthy investigations that regularly end with investigative findings kept confidential.

In addition, the city has the Citizen Review Committee, a volunteer board that also review community concerns about policing, hears appeals and aids in police policy recommendations.

Portland Auditor Mary Hull Caballero and the Portland Police Association have opposed the ballot measure. The union said it believes it could be illegal and Hull Caballero has said the proposal wasn’t adequately vetted, had too little community input before being put on the ballot and faces obstacles like state law and the police union’s contract with the city that would prevent any new oversight system from being effective.

The poll didn’t ask voters' opinions of the auditor, but it tested the strength of several of her arguments and found that they resonated faintly or not at all with most survey participants. The poll found 56% view the police union unfavorably and 61% don’t consider its statements about the measure believable.

It’s not entirely clear from the ballot measure what would happen to the Citizen Review Committee if voters approve the new system in November. Portland’s police agency also has its own internal affairs unit that investigates misconduct allegations.

Three members of the 11-member Citizen Review Committee announced last week that they were resigning. Two cited concerns over the current police accountability system and the law enforcement agency’s response to nightly protests over the last three months.

Around 70% of those surveyed said they hadn’t participated in any protests since June and another near 70% said they didn’t have a close friend or relative who works in law enforcement. The majority of participants said they approved of demonstrations in the city, with 92% supporting “non-violent protests” and 67% in favor of what was described as “these protests.”

Around 70% of respondents said they would vote for the ballot measure that would amend the city charter to allow a new independent community police oversight system. But the poll also showed a divide in support based on political party and ideology.

More than 90% of people who described themselves as progressive or liberal said they support the ballot measure, and around 65% of self-proclaimed moderates did the same. But 78% of those who said they were conservative, a group that makes up a small portion of the Portland electorate, said they wouldn’t support the ballot measure.

Also, almost 90% of people who said they were Democrats said they would support the measure, as did a little more than 60% of Independent voters. Nearly 70% of Republicans said they will probably or definitely vote against it.

Those were the only groups that pollsters identified of which a majority said they oppose the ballot measure. The poll showed men and women, voters in all age ranges, white and voters of color, and residents throughout the city with varying incomes all said they supported the ballot measure, with every group except voters age 65 and other lending greater than 70% support or leaning that way.

The least supportive demographic group by race, gender, age and geography were residents of the city’s west side, 48% of whom said they will likely vote yes and 32% said no.

Also, 56% of those polled said they believe there is a systemic problem in Portland policing that has led to “repeated police violence and mistreatment of Black Portlanders and people with mental illness.” Around 30% said they didn’t believe there was any systemic racial bias in Portland’s police system and attributed misconduct to “a handful of bad cops.”

The poll found 46% of respondents hold favorable views of Commissioner Jo Ann Hardesty, whose office crafted and sponsors the ballot measure, compared to 29% who view her unfavorably. In addition, 45% expressed favorable views of the police bureau and 31% of the Portland Police Association.

Wheeler, with his 63% unfavorable rating, is in the midst of a reelection campaign. He faces urban policy consultant Sarah Iannarone in the Nov. 3 runoff, and there has also been support for a community-run write-in campaign for city activist Teressa Raiford, who finished third in the May primary.

Homelessness, the economic impacts of the coronavirus outbreak and cost of healthcare were seen as the three most serious problems Portland faces, according to the poll, with all of them receiving more than 75% of the vote. Nearly all of the respondents, 93%, said homelessness was a serious problem.

Police use of force, racial discrimination, housing costs and coronavirus-related health impacts were also seen as serious problems for the city, but in lesser degrees, the poll showed.

It found 72% of likely voters think police use of force against people of color is a serious issue, but the numbers registered at 67% on use of force against Black people, 65% on use of force against people with mental illness and 59% on use of force against protesters.

Around 70% of the respondents said racial discrimination and prejudice, housing costs, and the health impacts of the coronavirus outbreak are serious problems for Portland.

-- Everton Bailey Jr; ebailey@oregonian.com | 503-221-8343 | @EvertonBailey

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