Tuesday marks seven years since Hurricane Sandy made its unprecedented landfall in New Jersey.

The devastating effects are well documented: 39 people dead and more than $30 billion in damage. Unprecedented flooding throughout the state. Millions of people without power for days. Major roadways rendered impassable for even longer.

And climate change likely made it all worse.

Since 1980, the threat posed to New Jersey by hurricanes and general flooding has risen dramatically thanks to climate change, according to a report released Tuesday. Ever-rising seas and warming ocean temperatures are fueling the growing risk — especially in the Garden State, where sinking land means that the water here climbs twice as fast as the global average.

It’s been an expensive shift. Hurricane-related winds and floods have caused up to $1.3 billion more in destruction in the state today than they would have if climate reported in the 1980s had remained constant, according to the report.

As long as greenhouse gas emissions continue to drive further climate change, the report expects the danger to grow.

The report, called “New Jersey’s Rising Coastal Risk," was produced by the independent research provider Rhodium Group with partner scientists from Rutgers University, the University of California and the University of Chicago. First Street Foundation, a nonprofit group that researches flood risk, also contributed to the report.

Hurricane risk

Around the world, oceans rise as steadily hotter temperatures melt more of the polar ice caps.

The water in Atlantic City has risen nearly 16 inches since 1900, according to the report; six inches since 1980 alone.

The creeping water is warmer than ever, particularly off the Jersey Shore. Sea surface temperature off the Northeast has heated faster than 99% of the global ocean since 2004, according to the report.

Hurricanes feed on warm water, so the hotter temperatures are likely to bring more storms north toward New Jersey. And, as the report makes clear, “higher sea levels mean more flooding during any given storm.”

Higher water and more frequent, intense hurricanes have combined to put thousands more buildings at risk of storm damage in the past four decades.

“There’s already a significant number of properties that are exposed to tidal flooding as a result of sea level rise,” said Bob Kopp, a Rutgers sea level rise expert and co-author of the report.

Today, between 62,000 and 86,000 more homes and commercial properties in New Jersey buildings are at risk of flooding during the life of a 30-year mortgage compared to 1980.

But water is just half of the threat. The report also found that hurricane-force winds have become more common for inland New Jersey. In 1980, the odds of the average home outside of the state’s coastal counties experiencing hurricane-force winds was less than 1 in 200. Now, those odds range between 1-in 100 and 1 in 30.

This is a big deal. According to the report, the Congressional Budget Office estimates that 42% of the nation’s expected annual loss from hurricanes come from wind damage rather than flooding.

Regular flooding

Thanks to the rising water alone, 23,000 more homes and buildings (worth $13 billion in total) have been placed at danger of “sunny-day” flooding — flooding that occurs in a given location at least 10 days every year, spurred by events like full moons and new moons — in 2019 than there were in 1980.

Ocean County is New Jersey’s most exposed county to this problem, with more than 15,000 buildings threatened by sunny-day flooding (up from about 5,000 buildings in 1980).

“We’re already seeing real economic damages from sea level rise and climate change,” Kopp said. “That increasing frequent tidal flooding of our coastal communities is not a daily reminder of it, but a weekly to monthly reminder of it.”

Looking ahead

New Jersey’s outlook in terms of how it is affected by climate change is expectedly grim.

By 2050, sea level rise will expose another 33,000 and 58,000 buildings in the state to sunny-day flooding.

Another 73,000 to 113,000 buildings — worth a combined $60 billion to $96 billion — will be at risk of flooding at least once every 30 years by the middle of the century.

And as rising seas boost flood risks, hurricanes are expected to become more dangerous. The report expects average annual damage caused by hurricane-related floods and winds to grow between $1.3 billion to $3.1 billion.

But these forecasted future damages “are not foregone conclusions,” according to the report. The researchers write that there is still time to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, which would reduce the hazards of future storms. And vulnerable communities can continue to plan for future climate change, mitigating the destruction of future floods and winds.

“For every $1 spent on flood mitigation, New Jersey is estimated to save $6.56," the report reads. "The return on investment for wind mitigation, such as reinforced window shutters and interlocking roof shingles, is even higher, with every $1 spent saving $6.78 in future disaster recovery.”

Michael Sol Warren may be reached at mwarren@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @MSolDub. Find NJ.com on Facebook.

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