This single county could decide the 2020 Presidential Election. Announcing ‘Swing County, Swing State,’ from lehighvalleylive.com and NJ.com

Swing County, Swing State illustration

Swing County, Swing State is a collaborative project between lehighvalleylive.com and nj.com that explores Northampton County’s critical role in the upcoming presidential election. (Illustration: Susana Sanchez-Young | Advance Local)

Cross the free bridge from Phillipsburg into Easton and you’re on Northampton Street in Northampton County.

The street doubles as Route 248 and if you follow it for about 25 miles into Walnutport, you will have experienced America’s diversity without ever leaving the county: Black, white, and Hispanic; wealthy, middle-class and poor; urban, suburban and rural.

And, yes, Republican and Democrat.

In 2016, Northampton County was widely viewed as a bellwether, and indeed became one of a handful of key spots that flipped from blue to red, and ultimately tipped the election to President Trump. The county’s voters predict how Pennsylvania will swing, even when they back the loser, and often the nation.

Northampton County voters only twice in the last century backed a candidate who did not win the state. Both times that person won the presidency. The other three times Pennsylvania voters got it wrong, Northampton voters did too.

Yet the county’s status as a microcosm of the nation only partially explains why its voters have had such success backing the candidates who ultimately claim victory.

There’s far more to the story of Northampton County, and its critical role in national elections — and it’s a story we plan to tell as never before.

Today, lehighvalleylive.com announces a major new journalism initiative, “Swing County, Swing State,” generously supported by a $25,000 grant from The John Farmer Memorial Journalism Fund. The fund — established in memory of the legendary Star-Ledger columnist John Farmer, who died in 2019 — seeks to foster work that operates at the nexus of local and national news.

“Swing County, Swing State” is the first project to receive the Fund’s support. The Fund’s support is being matched for an additional $10,000 from an anonymous donor, bringing total support for the “Swing County, Swing State” to $35,000.

“My father loved local stories that had national resonance; loved things that helped people understand how politics intersect with real life; and he loved things that helped people understand complex issues,” said John Farmer, Jr. the former New Jersey Attorney General who is now Director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University.

“This is exactly the kind of journalism he would have relished being a part of and reading.”

The grant will support one of the most in-depth projects ever on lehighvalleylive.com. Nearly two dozen journalists, from both lehighvalleylive.com and our sister website, NJ.com, will contribute to the project, which kicks off in early September with a series of stories on the county and its unique electoral history.

In the weeks leading up to the election, readers can look forward to careful analysis of the country’s electoral history; polling conducted in partnership with Franklin & Marshall College; expert commentary; explanatory pieces that examine the issues that will move the needle for area residents in 2020; and in-depth profiles of voters and their concerns. If we do our job well, we should know ahead of Election Day whether President Trump should plan for another four years or start packing.


We look forward, too, to incorporating photography, video, audio and social media into the project.

In addition to our partnership with Franklin & Marshall, we will be collaborating with the S.I. Newhouse School of Public Communications at Syracuse University. More than a dozen graduate and undergraduate students will provide reporting and research between now and Election Day. The Local Media Foundation, a non-profit that provides support to local news organizations, will provide fiscal sponsorship for the project. Anyone interested in contributing to the John Farmer Memorial Journalism Fund can contact Lindsey Estes of the Local Media Association at lindsey.estes@localmedia.org.

So why are we doing this? For one thing, we want to set the record straight — too often in stories about Northampton County, the national and international media swoops in and puts forth a narrative that fails to capture the nuance of what’s happening in the county. We’ve been guilty of “parachute journalism” too, but this election needs careful and locally informed reporting, and we want to illustrate how our local experiences are very much at the center of our national discourse.

The issues and anxieties at the core of the 2020 Presidential Election — the state of the economy; the roiling debates over race relations and policing; the clamor for good jobs and decent wages; our health and safety as the nation reopens — are all being debated right here. Our residents are not red-or-blue ideologues, but everyday folks who see things in complicated shades of purple.

And, of course, there’s the very strong argument to be made that whichever candidate wins Northampton County will also win Pennsylvania, its 20 electoral college votes and, likely, the Presidency.

Look for “Swing County, Swing State” reporting to launch on lehighvalleylive.com and NJ.com later this week. And please consider supporting ambitious local news like this with a subscription to lehighvalleylive.com.

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