BEREA, Ohio -- Ohio was declared by many as a red state after Donald Trump carried the state by eight percentage points in 2016, followed by statewide wins in 2018 by all Republicans with the exceptions of Democratic incumbent Sen. Sherrod Brown and Democrats who won two Ohio Supreme Court seats.
In contrast, Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each by less than one percentage point. These states then elected Democratic incumbents and challengers in races for governor and the Senate, highlighted by the defeat in Wisconsin of incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker by Democrat Tony Evers by one percentage point.
The Oct. 9 Great Lakes Poll conducted by Baldwin Wallace University in partnership with Ohio Northern University and Oakland University found Joe Biden leading President Trump in Wisconsin, 49% to 42%; in Pennsylvania, 49% to 44%; and in Michigan, 50% to 43%; while Trump led Biden in Ohio, 47% to 45%. The Oct. 21 Real Clear Politics polling averages for these states showed similar results, with Biden leading in Michigan by 7.8 points, Wisconsin by 4.6 points, and Pennsylvania by 4.9 points, and a hair’s-breadth lead in Ohio of 0.6 points.
Why is Ohio so much more competitive? The answer may lie in the tilt of the Black vote.
Great Lakes Poll respondents identified on average as 86% white. Those identifying as Black were 10% in Michigan and Ohio, 8% in Pennsylvania, and 4% in Wisconsin. Latinos, Asian-Americans, and other ethnic groups comprised 7% of respondents in Michigan, 6% in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and 5% in Wisconsin.
The poll found 17% of Black respondents in Ohio choosing Trump, compared with 7% in Michigan, 10% in Pennsylvania, and 5% in Wisconsin. Seventy-two percent of Ohio Black respondents support Biden, who was the choice of 85% of Blacks in the other three states. Among white likely voters, Trump has a three-point lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania, is behind Biden by four points in Wisconsin, but is ahead by ten points in Ohio.
Another factor may be the type of community of respondents. Those identifying as urban residents included 20% in Michigan, 25% in Ohio, 21% in Pennsylvania, and 28% in Wisconsin. Suburban residents made up 53% of Michigan’s sample, 52% in Ohio, 51% in Pennsylvania, and 42% in Wisconsin. Rural residents were 27% of Michigan, 24% of Ohio, 27% of Pennsylvania, and 30% of Wisconsin.
Not surprisingly, Biden had the strongest support in urban areas, leading Trump by 21 points in Michigan, 18 points in Wisconsin, and 33 points in Pennsylvania, but only by 7 points in Ohio. Biden also led substantially in suburban areas, by 14 points in Michigan and Wisconsin, 8 points in Pennsylvania, but only 5 points in Ohio. Trump remains strong in rural areas, leading Biden by 26 points in Ohio, 20 points in Pennsylvania, and 14 points in Michigan, but only 3 points in Wisconsin.
The data show Biden with stronger support among Blacks and urban and suburban residents in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and less support in Ohio. White voter support for Trump is strongest in Ohio, where he also has the biggest lead among rural voters.
Biden is building a significant lead among important demographic groups in the three states that Trump won by a combined 77,474 votes in 2016. Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 446,841 votes, eclipsing Obama’s 2008 margin of 262,224.
For Biden to win, it will be critically important to increase Black and urban voter turnout in Ohio, as well as in the other three states.
Polling shows Trump possibly losing one or more states such as Arizona and Georgia. Should he lose both, Trump must hold onto the four Midwest states to win with 275 Electoral College votes. Biden can lose Ohio and win the presidency. For Trump, it will be much more difficult.
Tom Sutton is a political science professor and director of the Community Research Institute at Baldwin Wallace University.
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