CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Ohio residents have been better at social distancing than coronavirus modelers anticipated, resulting in a more positive outlook for the state, Gov. Mike DeWine said Thursday.
The latest projections from a model developed by the Ohio State University’s Infectious Disease Institute say the state could see roughly 1,600 new COVID-19 cases per day at the peak of the outbreak later this month. The outlook represents a dramatic improvement over previous models that suggested the state could see a peak near 10,000 new cases per day, even with social-distancing measures like Ohio’s stay-at-home order.
DeWine credited Ohio residents for the improved outlook, saying they’ve reduced person-to-person contact more than modelers predicted. He said it’s difficult for modelers to anticipate human behavior.
“Quite candidly, the modelers didn’t think we were going to do as good a job as we did," DeWine said during Thursday’s daily coronavirus briefing.
The state’s latest outlook is closer to models developed by MetroHealth and the University of Washington’s Center for Health Metrics and Evaluation. MetroHealth President and CEO Akram Boutros and IHME Director Christopher Murray have each said social distancing measures led to the improved projections, with Boutros estimating Ohio residents have reduced person-to-person contact by as much as 95 percent.
All of the models are operating under the assumption that social-distancing measures will remain in effect in the near future; Ohio’s stay-at-home order is currently set to expire May 1.
DeWine cautioned that Ohio cannot relax its social-distancing measures too soon. He used the movie “Back to the Future” to illustrate that decisions made in the present could change the outlook moving forward.
“We’re in the middle of the ballgame,” DeWine said. “It’s not over. We’re doing well. We have to continue to push on.”
State officials are working on a plan to ease social-distancing measures so residents can return to their routines and businesses can reopen. DeWine did not offer any details of that plan, but called it “fairly sophisticated” and said it could be made public sometime in the next week.
Ohio is still seeing an increase in hospital admissions, and the state reported 213 coronavirus-related deaths as of Wednesday. But DeWine called the latest outlook for Ohio “good news."
“By and large, Ohioans have done a bang-up job,” he said. “We’re Ohioans. We get the job done.”
Read more from cleveland.com:
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Ohio State researchers say state coronavirus modeling will likely be public next week
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