Novel coronavirus less deadly than past epidemics, local experts say

CDC Emergency Operations Center

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention activated its Emergency Operations Center to assist public health partners in responding to the novel coronavirus outbreak first identified in Wuhan, China.

CLEVELAND, Ohio — As the death toll of the novel coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, surpasses 640 in China, local infectious disease specialists say the mortality rate of the virus remains far below that of past outbreaks.

“Although the number of infections, particularly in mainland China, is increasing day over day, the proportion of deaths related to infection is staying about the same,” said Dr. Amy Ray, medical director of infection prevention and employee health at MetroHealth Medical Center.

The mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is about 2% to 3%. That compares to 10% for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) and 34% for MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome), both of which are also coronaviruses (a large family of viruses).

“MERS was the most lethal coronavirus we’ve known so far,” said Dr. Elie Saade, medical director for infection control at University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center.

The mortality rate for the novel coronavirus may even be lower than 2% because many people with milder cases may not be going to the hospital and being tested, said Saade. Coronavirus is a respiratory illness with symptoms similar to those of the flu – fever, cough and shortness of breath.

How the coronavirus spreads or transmits, while suspected to be respiratory, still is unknown, Saade said. For now, the coronavirus seems to be affecting older people and people who are already sick.

“I can’t overstate the importance of educating health care providers on the front lines early,” Ray said.

Scientists have been fast to identify the virus and begin testing, said Ray, who attributes that to a “global scientific effort.”

“The pace of the science has been absolutely astonishing,” Ray said. “Right now, there’s no medication that treats novel coronavirus but there are preliminary reports looking at proposed treatment.”

So far, the novel coronavirus is concentrated in Wuhan, China, where the virus was first detected, but has spread to 28 countries. In the U.S., 12 people, as of Friday, were confirmed to have the new coronavirus. But only two deaths outside of mainland China have been reported, in the Philippines and in Hong Kong.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the virus still poses a low risk to the vast majority of Americans.

Public health and government officials, as well as health care providers, have learned from experience with other outbreaks and are prepared to stop a spread of the virus, Saade said.

“I’m pretty sure at any hospital where somebody may go, they will get a mask right away,” Saade said of people at risk for the novel coronavirus. “People are very aware of this. They learned a lot from what happened before.”

Comparison to past outbreaks

MERS: MERS is a viral respiratory disease caused by the MERS-coronavirus. It was first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012 and has spread around the Arabian peninsula to 27 countries, including the United States, according to the CDC.

There have been 858 MERS-related deaths since September 2012, according to the World Health Organization. During a large outbreak in 2014, two Americans tested positive for MERS, and both recovered. Another large outbreak occurred in 2015.

SARS-CoV: SARS is a viral respiratory illness caused by a coronavirus. It was first reported in Asia in early 2002 and spread to 29 countries in North America, South America, Europe, and Asia before it was contained, the CDC said.

There have been no reported cases of SARS anywhere in the world since 2004, according to WHO.

Worldwide, SARS was responsible for 8,096 cases and 774 deaths from 2002-2003. There were no SARS deaths in this country, according to WHO.

Ebola: Ebola virus, which is in a different family of viruses than the coronavirus, is a type of hemorrhagic fever first discovered in 1976 in what is now the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). It is one of the deadliest viral diseases, the CDC said.

Since 1976, the virus has emerged periodically in several African countries.

The 2014–2016 outbreak in West Africa was the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the virus was first discovered. There were more cases and deaths in this outbreak – more than 28,000 cases and 11,000 deaths — than all others combined, according to the World Health Organization.

The current outbreak in the DRC has been going on since 2018. This is the 10th and largest Ebola outbreak in DRC, and the second largest outbreak of Ebola ever recorded.

The United States saw four cases and one death from Ebola in 2014, WHO said.

A vaccine trial started in 2019 for two new Ebola treatments have proved so effective that they are being offered to all patients in the DRC, according to CNN. The FDA has approved an Ebola vaccine for the first time in this country, CNN reported.

1918 Influenza: The 1918 H1N1 flu pandemic, sometimes referred to as the “Spanish flu,” infected about 500 million people, or one-third of the world’s population. The virus killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide, according to the CDC.

In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. The 1918 influenza killed about 675,000 people in this country.

“It was definitely a different environment then,” Saade said. “There was different population transport and movement.”

This pandemic was unique because of the high death rate in young, healthy people, the CDC said.

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This story was updated to correct the name of University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center.

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