CLEVELAND, Ohio -- Everybody knows it. The Browns are desperate for help at offensive tackle.
There is no better spot to find one than in the 2020 NFL Draft. Four tackles project to be first-round selections come April 23. As always, much can change between now and the draft, especially with the NFL combine starting Monday. But with the Browns selecting at No. 10, they are in prime position to pluck “the next Joe Thomas”.
However sometimes in the draft, a talent who most consider is a can’t miss starts falling. Whether it is because of team needs, a quarterback run or trades, there are plenty of examples throughout draft history where a top talent falls. Then a smart organization realizes the market inefficiency and selects said player, despite what their board says.
The Ravens’ pick of Lamar Jackson at 32 two years ago is a prime example, and that worked out well.
Though unlikely, there is still a chance Clemson hybrid linebacker Isaiah Simmons survives the first nine picks and becomes the steal of the draft.
As stated in the first installment of this mock draft series, the Browns need to reload, not rebuild. That starts with their No. 10 selection. So, let’s mock draft the first nine picks and then assume the Browns find a way to select Simmons. Then after the first-round selection, we’ll evaluate how the Browns could/should attack the rest of the draft.
Projecting the first nine picks
For this exercise, I ran 50 simulations of the first nine picks using the Draft Network’s mock draft machine. Of the 50 mock drafts, Simmons was available at No. 10 just five times. Which means according to Draft Network, there is only a 10 percent chance Simmons falls that far.
But as Lloyd Christmas taught us, Draft Network is telling Browns fans there is a chance. Therefore, let’s operate under the assumption Simmons falls and the Browns pick him. If GM Andrew Berry is faced with this opportunity, it would be very difficult to pass on Simmons considering the Browns need serious help at both linebacker and safety.
Simmons translates as a hybrid linebacker who can lineup anywhere on the field. To learn more about how he projects as a linebacker, read here. And for clips of Simmons playing safety, read here.
Not only is Simmons a versatile 6-4, 230-pound athlete built to stop modern NFL offenses, but he also possesses the type of game-swinging upside that is rare in defensive players.
By taking the average draft position for each of the nine spots and excluding Simmons from selection, here is how the first nine picks of the 2020 NFL draft play out.
1) Bengals -- Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
2) Washington -- Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State
3) Lions -- Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State
4) Giants -- Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
5) Dolphins -- Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
6) Chargers -- Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
7) Panthers -- Derrick Brown, DL, Auburn
8) Cardinals -- Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
9) Jaguars -- Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU
At No.10, the Browns select
The pick is Simmons. It is really that simple. If Berry and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski pass on him, I’d be surprised. A legitimate case can be made that Simmons is the year’s best prospect.
Mock draft simulations are unbiased and fun, but what would actually have to happen for Simmons to fall? Here’s the scenario.
Burrow is unquestioned at No. 1 and if Chase Young isn’t selected by Washington, he won’t get by the Giants at No. 4. Oddly enough, in 100 Draft Network simulations, Young only fell out of the top 4 once. In which case, the simulator had the Browns select the Buckeye standout at No. 10.
If both Detroit and New York pass on Simmons, then he could start falling. The Dolphins, Chargers and Panthers all need a quarterback. It seems likely Tagovailoa and Herbert each go to one of those teams. In 100 mock drafts, Auburn interior lineman Derrick Brown’s average draft position is 7.4, meaning he has consistently been going at No. 7 to Carolina.
That leaves Arizona and Jacksonville for possible Simmons fall stoppers and both teams have many needs on both sides of the ball. Arizona needs offensive line help as much as Cleveland does. If the Cardinals don’t select a receiver like the above mock draft states then taking Iowa tackle Tristan Wirfs would make sense.
As for the Jags, they are the biggest threat to pluck Simmons from Cleveland. However, if Jeudy is still there then drafting a dynamic playmaker on the outside is always an easy sell. Or, Jacksonville could select LSU corner Kristian Fulton, to replace former All-Pro Jalen Ramsey who was traded to Los Angeles.
If all that happens, which seems unlikely but not impossible, then Simmons to Cleveland at No. 10 should become reality.
What this means for the rest of the draft
If the Browns select Simmons, it isn’t shouldn’t be viewed as Berry deviating from a draft-day plan or even taking a risk. For as much help as Cleveland needs at tackle, the Browns need just as much help at both safety and linebacker. Because the 2020 draft is deep with offensive line talent, Cleveland could benefit from taking Simmons and finding a lineman later.
Focusing on rounds two and three, the Browns must target a few later-round prospects at tackle, receiver, linebacker and cornerback. In Round 2, the Browns should have a few options at tackle. At No. 41, TCU lineman Lucas Niang and USC tackle Austin Jackson are both nice targets.
On tape, Niang moves with mobility and flexibility. He projects as a nice run blocker in a zone running scheme -- not that he can’t work in other systems, but zone-blocking fits his skill set best.
What stands out about Jackson is his length. His arms are long and he features NBA-caliber height at 6-7. He has a smooth, fluid approach and combines that with flexibility and agility typically reserved for smaller players. Jackson should have a long NFL career.
Assuming the Browns land a tackle in Round 2, then in the later rounds Cleveland must find a pass catcher, either at tight end or receiver and a traditional linebacker. Though later rounds are nearly impossible to predict, Ohio State linebacker Malik Harrison should be available late and would make sense for the Browns outside of the obvious college connection.
Receivers Denzel Mims of Baylor and the Buckeyes’ KJ Hill should be around in Rounds 3 and 4 if the Browns want to start grooming the heir to Odell Beckham Jr. At tight end, Notre Dame’s Cole Kmet is a big body who could help Baker Mayfield.
What we learned
The Browns getting lucky and having Simmons fall to them at No. 10 would be exciting. Because of the depth at offensive line, Berry and company could afford to wait at tackle. Perhaps that is the way Cleveland maximizes its first two rounds, by taking Simmons and then the best available tackle at No. 41.
Despite the needs on offense, Cleveland craves a defensive difference-maker. Considering how poor the Browns’ run defense was, he’ll help there also. Because of his size and versatility, he’ll be a Day 1 starter and could play anywhere in Joe Woods’s 4-3 defense. Simmons would fill a critical need for Cleveland and drafting him would mean plugging a dynamic talent into a defense also regaining Myles Garrett.
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