“I am your president of law and order,” Donald Trump declared in June, as federal agents violently cleared peaceful protesters from a park near the White House. Lately, Trump has simply tweeted “law and order” in all caps. But what is his strategy here – and will it work?
What does Trump mean by ‘law and order’?
The basic “law-and-order” political strategy amounts to convincing voters that crime is a threat – scaring them into such a belief, if necessary – and then convincing them only you can stop it.
As deployed in US politics for decades, the strategy seeks to play on racist fears, using code language – “crime”, “inner cities”, “quiet neighborhoods” – in an attempt to connect especially with white voters.
The strategy was most famously used by two candidates in the 1968 presidential race, Republican Richard Nixon and George Wallace, a segregationist governor of Alabama who mounted a third-party run.
In that race, Nixon invoked “cities enveloped in smoke and flame” and “Americans dying”. This year, Trump is talking about “rioting, looting, arson and violence we have seen in Democrat-run cities”.
Is this a new argument from Trump?
Trump, whose close political adviser Roger Stone idolizes Nixon, used exactly the same appeal in 2016, arguing in his convention address that Barack Obama had “made America a more dangerous environment for everyone” and declaring himself “the law and order candidate”.
Is the strategy working this time?
It is unclear whether Trump is gaining traction in the 2020 election with the strategy. Some Democratic strategists have warned that outbreaks of violence during the protest movement that rose up after the killing of Minneapolis man George Floyd in May could help drive voters to Trump.
But polls have indicated that most Americans support the racial justice movement, and there has been no indication in recent weeks or months of a significant movement in the race toward Trump.
Furthermore, according to Pew Research, “violent crime” is not a top issue for voters, ranking fifth in importance behind the economy, healthcare, supreme court appointments and the coronavirus.
“It’s one thing to use symbolic rhetoric to scare people,” Julia Azari, a professor of political science at Marquette University, told the Guardian in an interview last month. “But it’s another thing to make ‘law and order’ your argument, and then count on that being enough to delegitimize the claims being made by people who are engaging in peaceful protests.”
Has Trump overplayed his hand?
After white supremacists clashed with anti-racism protesters in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017, Trump’s praise of the “very fine people” on both sides was met with backlash. Recently, Trump has tweeted condolences for a member of a far-right group who was killed in Portland, and he has declined to criticize a white teen who prosecutors say killed two protesters in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
“This is their strategy, this is how they do politics,” said Azari.
“To shift to law and order and distract people, and say the real problem is these protesters, and say, ‘Look, we’re strong. This is one of those types of claims that Trump made in 2016, that he’s a strong leader. And so it’s possible that his political advisers think that here is a way to demonstrate that.
“Again, I think strategically this is a little risky, and it’s not obvious to me that this is having a warm reception.”