Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Review Article
  • Published:

Human drivers of national greenhouse-gas emissions

Abstract

Centuries of speculation about the causes of human stress on the environment is now being disciplined with empirical evidence, including analyses of differences in greenhouse-gas emissions across contemporary nation states. The cumulative results can provide useful guidance for both climate projections and for policy design. Growing human population and affluence clearly contribute to enhanced environmental stress. Evidence does not support the argument for amelioration of greenhouse-gas emissions at the highest levels of affluence. However, the role of other factors, such as urbanization, trade, culture and institutions remains ambiguous.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Rosa, E. A. & Dietz, T. Climate change and society: Speculation, construction and scientific investigation. Int. Sociol. 13, 421–455 (1998).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Richerson, P. J. & Boyd, R. in Evolution of Cognition (eds Heyes, C. & Huber, L.) 329–346 (MIT Press, 2000).

    Google Scholar 

  3. Richerson, P. J., Boyd, R. & Bettinger, R. L. Was agriculture impossible during the Pleistocene but mandatory during the Holocene? A climate change hypothesis. Am. Antiquity 66, 387–411 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. United Nations Development Programme Fighting Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World Human Development Report 2007/2008 (UNDP, 2007).

  5. Rudel, T. K. et al. Forest transitions: Towards a global understanding of land use change. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 23–31 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. DeFries, R., Rudel, T., Uriarte, M. & Hansen, M. Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century. Nature Geosci. 3, 178–181 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  7. Williams, M. A new look at global forest histories of land clearing. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 33, 345–367 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Dietz, T., Gardner, G. T., Gilligan, J., Stern, P. C. & Vandenbergh, M. P. The behavioral wedge: Household actions can rapidly reduce US carbon emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 106, 18452–18456 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Wilk, R. R. in Environmentally Significant Consumption: Research Directions (eds Stern, P. C. et al.) 110–115 (National Academy Press, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  10. York, R. Cross-national variation in the size of passenger car fleets: A study in environmentally significant consumption. Popul. Environ. 25, 119–140 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. York, R. & Gossard, M. H. Cross-national meat and fish consumption: Exploring the effects of modernization and ecological context. Ecol. Econ. 48, 293–302 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Ehrlich, P. R. & Holdren, J. P. Impact of population growth. Science 171, 1212–1217 (1971).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  13. Commoner, B., Corr, M. & Stamler, P. J. The causes of pollution. Environment 13, 2–19 (1971).

    Google Scholar 

  14. Dietz, T., Rosa, E. A. & York, R. in Threats to Sustainability: Understanding Human Footprints on the Global Environment (eds Rosa, E. A., Diekmann, A., Dietz, T. & Jaeger, C.) 83–132 (MIT Press, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  15. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (United Nations, 2011).

  16. Davis, S. J. & Caldeira, K. Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 5687–5692 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Kitzes, J. et al. A research agenda for improving national ecological footprint accounts. Ecol. Econ. 68, 1991–2007 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Dietz, T. & Rosa, E. A. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Hum. Ecol. Rev. 1, 277–300 (1994).

    Google Scholar 

  19. Dietz, T., Rosa, E. A. & York, R. Driving the human ecological footprint. Front. Ecol. Environ. 5, 13–18 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Jorgenson, A. K. & Clark, B. Assessing the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship in comparative perspective: A cross-national panel study of carbon dioxide emissions, 1960–2005. Popul. Environ. 32, 27–41 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Lankao, P. R., Tribbia, J. L. & Nychkla, D. Testing theories to explore the drivers of cities' atmospheric emissions. Ambio 38, 236–244 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  22. York, R., Rosa, E. A. & Dietz, T. Footprints on the Earth: The environmental consequences of modernity. Am. Sociol. Rev. 68, 279–300 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Cramer, J. C. A demographic perspective on air quality: Conceptual issues surrounding environmental impacts of population growth. Hum. Ecol. Rev. 3, 191–196 (1997).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Cramer, J. C. Population growth and air quality in California. Demography 35, 45–56 (1998).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  25. Liu, J., Daily, G. C., Ehrlich, P. R. & Luck, G. W. Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity. Nature 421, 530–533 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  26. MacKellar, F. L., Lutz, W., Prinz, C. & Goujon, A. Population, households and CO2 emissions. Popul. Dev. Rev. 21, 849–865 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Knight, K. & Rosa, E. A. Household dynamics and fuelwood consumption in developing countries: A cross-national analysis. Popul. Environ. 33, 365–378 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Zhou, W. et al. Energy consumption patterns in the process of China's urbanization. Popul. Environ. 33, 202–220 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Jorgenson, A. K., Clark, B. & Kentor, J. Militarization and the environment: A panel study of carbon dioxide emissions and the ecological footprints of nations, 1970–2000. Glob. Environ. Polit. 10, 7–29 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Glaeser, E. L. & Kahn, M. E. The greenness of cities: Carbon dioxide emissions and urban development. J. Urban Econ. 67, 404–418 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Dietz, T. The human ecology of population and environment: From Utopia to Topia. Hum. Ecol. Rev. 3, 168–171 (1996/1997).

    Google Scholar 

  32. Frey, R. S. & Al-Mansour, I. The effects of development, dependence and population pressure on democracy: The cross-national evidence. Sociol. Spectrum 15, 181–208 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. MartÌnez-Zarzoso, I. & Maruotti, A. The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: Evidence from developing countries. Ecol. Econ. 70, 1344–1353 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Shi, A. The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecol. Econ. 44, 24–42 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. York, R. Do alternative energy sources displace fossil fuels? Nature Clim. Change 2, 441–443 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Anderson, C. H. The Sociology of Survival: Social Problems of Growth (Dorsey Press, 1976).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Schnaiberg, A. The Environment: From Surplus to Scarcity (Oxford Univ. Press, 1980).

    Google Scholar 

  38. Kuznets, S. Economic growth and income inequality. Am. Econ. Rev. 45, 1–28 (1955).

    Google Scholar 

  39. Grossman, G. & Krueger, A. Economic growth and the environment. Q. J. Econ. 110, 353–377 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Mol, A. P. J. in The International Handbook of Environmental Sociology 2nd edn (eds Redclift, M. R. & Woodgate, G.) 63–76 (Edward Elgar Publishing Limited, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Spaargaren, G. & Mol, A. P. J. Sociology, environment and modernity: Ecological modernization as a theory of social change. Soc. Natur. Resour. 5, 323–344 (1992).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Shafik, N. Economic development and environmental quality: An econometric analysis. Oxford Econ. Pap. 46, 757–773 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Selden, T. M. & Song, D. Environmental quality and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for air pollution emissions? J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 27, 147–162 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Stern, D. I. & Common, M. S. Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for sulfur. J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 41, 162–178 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  45. Aslanidis, N. & Iranzo, S. Environment and development: Is there a Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions? Appl. Econ. 41, 803–810 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Azomahou, T., Laisney, F. & Nguyen Van, P. Economic development and CO2 emissions: A nonparametric panel approach. J. Public Econ. 90, 1347–1363 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Carson, R. T. The environmental Kuznets curve: Seeking empirical regularity and theoretical structure. Rev. Environ. Econ. Policy 4, 3–23 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  48. Cavlovic, T., Baker, K. H., Berrens, R. P. & Gawande, K. A meta-analysis of Kuznets curve studies. Agr. Resour. Econ. Rev. 29, 32–42 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Jalil, A. & Mahmud, S. F. Environment Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions: A cointegration analysis for China. Energ. Policy 37, 5167–5172 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. United Nations Fund for Population Activities http://www.unfpa.org/public/ (2007).

  51. Jorgenson, A. K. Does foreign investment harm the air we breathe and the water we drink? A cross-national study of carbon dioxide emissions and organic water pollution in less-developed countries, 1975 to 2000. Organ. Environ. 20, 137–156 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Jorgenson, A. K. The transnational organization of production, the scale of degradation, and ecoefficiency: A study of carbon dioxide emissions in less-developed countries. Hum. Ecol. Rev. 16, 64–74 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  53. Jorgenson, A. K., Dick, C. & Shandra, J. M. World economy, world society, and environmental harms in less-developed countries. Sociol. Inq. 81, 53–87 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. MartÌnez-Zarzoso, I., Bengochea-Morancho, A. & Morales-Lage, R. The impact of population on CO2 emissions: Evidence from European countries. Environ. Resour. Econ. 38, 497–512 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. VandeWeghe, J. R. & Kennedy, C. A spatial analysis of residential greenhouse gas emissions in the Toronto census metropolitan area. J. Ind. Ecol. 11, 133–144 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  56. Foster, J. B. Marx's theory of metabolic rift: Classical foundations for environmental sociology. Am. J. Sociol. 105, 366–405 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Foster, J. B., Clark, B. & York, R. The Ecological Rift: Capitalism's War on the Earth (Monthly Review Press, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  58. Cole, M. A. Development, trade, and the environment: How robust is the environmental Kuznets curve? Environ. Dev. Econ. 8, 557–580 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Cole, M. A. Trade, the pollution haven hypothesis and the environmental Kuznets curve: Examining the linkages. Ecol. Econ. 48, 71–81 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Cole, M. A. Does trade liberalization increase national energy use? Econ. Lett. 92, 108–112 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Jorgenson, A. K. The effects of primary sector foreign investment on carbon dioxide emissions from agriculture production in less-developed countries, 1980–99. Int. J. Comp. Sociol. 48, 29–42 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Ostrom, E. Polycentric systems for coping with collective action and global environmental change. Glob. Environ. Change 20, 550–557 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Ostrom, E. A general framework for analyzing sustainability of social–ecological systems. Science 325, 419–422 (2009).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  64. Ostrom, E. Understanding Institutional Diversity (Princeton Univ. Press, 2005).

    Google Scholar 

  65. Dietz, T., Ostrom, E. & Stern, P. C. The struggle to govern the commons. Science 301, 1907–1912 (2003).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  66. McCay, B. J. & Svein, J. in Human Footprints on the Global Environment: Threats to Sustainability (eds Rosa, E. A., Diekmann, A., Dietz, T. & Jaeger, C.) 203–230 (MIT Press, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  67. Young, O. in Human Footprints on the Global Environment: Threats to Sustainability (eds Rosa, E. A., Diekmann, A., Dietz, T. & Jaeger, C.) 165–201 (MIT Press, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  68. Whitford, A. B. & Wong, K. Political and social foundations for environmental sustainability. Polit. Res. Quart. 62, 190–204 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  69. Jorgenson, A. K. Global warming and the neglected greenhouse gas: A cross-national study of the social causes of methane emissions intensity, 1995. Soc. Forces 84, 1779–1798 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  70. Bättig, M. B. & Bernauer, T. National institutions and global public goods: Are democracies more cooperative in climate change policy? Int. Organ. 63, 281–308 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  71. Bogaards, M. Measures of democratization: From degree to type to war. Polit. Res. Quart. 63, 475–488 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  72. Chiebug, J. A., Gandhi, J. & Vreeland, J. R. Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice 143, 67–101 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  73. Ostrom, E. A multi-scale approach to coping with climate change and other collective action problems. Solutions 1, 27–36 (2010).

    Google Scholar 

  74. Stern, P. C. Contributions of psychology to limiting climate change. Am. Psychol. 66, 303–314 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  75. Schultz, P. W. & Kaiser, F. G. in Handbook of Environmental and Conservation Psychology (ed. Clayton, S. D) (Oxford Univ. Press, in the press).

  76. Leach, W. D. & Sabatier, P. A. To trust an adversary: Integrating rational and psychological models of collaborative policymaking. Am. Polit. Sci. Rev. 99, 491–503 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  77. Siegrist, M., Earle, T. C. & Gutscher, H. (eds) Trust in Cooperative Risk Management: Uncertainty and Skepticism in the Public Mind (Earthscan, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  78. Dietz, T., Fitzgerald, A. & Shwom, R. Environmental values. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 30, 335–372 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  79. Heberlein, T. A. Navigating Environmental Attitudes (Oxford Univ. Press, in the press).

  80. Jaeger, C., Renn, O., Rosa, E. A. & Webler, T. Risk, Uncertainly and Rational Action (Earthscan, 2001).

    Google Scholar 

  81. Kahneman, D. A perspective on judgment and choice. Am. Psychol. 58, 697–720 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  82. Dietz, T. & Stern, P. C. Toward a theory of choice: Socially embedded preference construction. J. Socio-Econ. 24, 261–279 (1995).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  83. Marquart-Pyatt, S. T. Concern for the environment among general publics: A cross-national study. Soc. Natur. Resour. 20, 883–898 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  84. Brechin, S. R. in The Routledge International Handbook of Climate Change and Society (ed Lever-Tracy, C.) 179–209 (Routledge Press, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  85. Sandvik, H. Public concern over global warming correlates negatively with national wealth. Climatic Change 90, 333–341 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  86. Ward, H. Liberal democracy and sustainability. Environ. Polit. 17, 386–409 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  87. McCright, A. M. The effects of gender on climate change knowledge and concern in the American public. Popul. Environ. 32, 66–87 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  88. Kalof, L., Dietz, T., Guagnano, G. A. & Stern, P. C. Race, gender and environmentalism: The atypical values and beliefs of white men. Race Gender Class 9, 1–19 (2002).

    Google Scholar 

  89. White, L. J. The historical roots of our ecological crisis. Science 155, 1203–1207 (1967).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  90. Morgan, M. G. & Keith, D. W. Improving the way we think about projecting future energy use and emissions of carbon dioxide. Climatic Change 90, 189–215 (2008).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  91. Liu, J. et al. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317, 1513–1516 (2007).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  92. Rosa, E. A. & Dietz, T. in Human Footprints on the Global Environment: Threats to Sustainability (eds Rosa, E. A., Diekmann, A., Dietz, T. & Jaeger, C. C.) 1–45 (MIT Press, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  93. US National Research Council Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change (National Academy Press, 2010).

  94. US National Research Council America's Climate Choices (National Academies Press, 2011).

  95. Ehrlich, P. R. & Holdren, J. P. Hidden effects of overpopulation. Saturday Rev. 53, 52 (1970).

    Google Scholar 

  96. Chertow, M. The IPAT equation and its variants: Changing views of technology and environmental impact. J. Ind. Ecol. 4, 13–29 (2001).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  97. Kaya, Y. Impact of Carbon Dioxide Emission Control on GNP Growth: Interpretation of Proposed Scenarios (IPCC Energy and Industry Subgroup, Response Strategies Working Group, 1990).

    Google Scholar 

  98. Kaya, Y. & Yokobori, K. Environment, Energy, and Economy: Strategies for Sustainability (Unitied Nations Univ. Press, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  99. Emissions Scenarios (eds Nakicenovic, N. & Swart, R) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000).

Download references

Acknowledgements

E.A.R. was partially supported by the Boeing Environmental Sociology Professorwhip. T.D. was partially supported by AgBio Research of Michigan State University. We thank R. Kelly for her overall assistance and S. Bryant for a close reading of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Eugene A. Rosa.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Rosa, E., Dietz, T. Human drivers of national greenhouse-gas emissions. Nature Clim Change 2, 581–586 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1506

Download citation

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1506

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing